Friday, October 15, 2010

Global Warming Science
Please click the links. You must at least casually review these articles to understand what I am talking about.

What is the science or lack thereof behind “Global Warming”? It may surprise some people that the earth’s climate is a very complicated thing. Carbon dioxide can intercept infrared radiation at a wavelength of about 15 microns and heat up. When the earth heats up, it can release carbon dioxide. Which came first the chicken or the egg? The plain and simple fact is nobody knows. There is much more water vapor in the earth’s atmosphere; and, water vapor absorbs infrared radiation at a much broader band width than carbon dioxide. It is universally believed that water vapor accounts for the overwhelming bulk of the so-called green-house effect. Water vapor also turns into clouds. Sometimes incoming cosmic radiation can effect the formation of clouds. Clouds cool the earth significantly. Convection also cools the earth significantly. The effect of clouds and convection would completely overwhelm the effect of radiance in the troposphere. The classic view of climate change puts ocean currents and the position of continents in the driver’s seat. Volcanoes emit both co2 which supposedly warms the earth and sulfur which cools the earth. Forrest fires emit both soot which cools the earth and enormous amounts of co2 which supposedly warms the earth. Soot can also darken snow causing the snow to absorb more visible light. Weathering of minerals also changes the amount of co2 in the atmosphere. Weathering of kerogen or carbonates can add co2. Much of the earth’s historic co2 has been sequestered in carbonates by living organisms. Weathering of silicates absorbs co2 and most of the earth’s surface is covered by silicates. The mechanics of earth’s movement through space (Milankovitch cycles) also exert a significant effect on climate. Solar activity has a significant effect on climate; but, not the way you might think. It seems the solar wind associated with sun-spots is a barrier to cosmic rays. You can find an abundance of articles on the web connecting sun-spots with climate including the observations of Edward Walter Maunder eighty years before this climate debate began. Living things have a significant effect on the earth’s climate too. Animals produce co2. Plants absorb co2 and also cool by vaporization. As if all this was not complicated enough, I can personally guaranty you that what we don’t know about the earth’s climate vastly exceeds what we do know! Yet it seems that the proponents of anthropogenic global warming have it all down to a computer model. I can only conclude that they must have the chips from the first “Terminator”.

By necessity, computer models are almost always cartoonish oversimplifications of reality. Both the code and the amount of processing time increase incredibly fast as one tries to make more realistic approximations of reality. Often these simplifications come surprisingly close to real world effects. Sometimes, they don’t. Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi claims that the black body equations used by many so called climatologists are a gross over simplification of how radiative equilibrium works on a real planet. Dr. Miskolczi’s article published in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service Vol. 111, No. 1, January–March 2007, pp. 1–40, which can be downloaded from: In defense of Dr. Miskoliczi’s article, many scientists believe that even though the partial pressure of co2 is equal to the air pressure outside the international space station, that the co2 in earths atmosphere completely extinguishes infrared radiation in it’s main absorption band of 15 microns in a few hundred meters. Carbon dioxide is like India ink to infrared radiation at a wavelength of 15 microns. The earth’s ability to maintain a relatively stable temperature is well known to earth scientists. So mystifying is the earth’s ability to maintain a relatively steady temperature that it has been given the whimsical misnomer “Gaia Hypothesis”. In fact no one really believes that the earth is alive or is being watched over by some Greek goddess and no one had any hypothesis to explain this fact until Dr. Miskoliczi published his article. Skeptical Science claims that extinction of co2 absorption spectra is irrelevant because of convection yet the cooling effects of convection are not taken into account nor any data set cited. Go ahead click their links. The sad fact is that we seem stuck like a broken record on these radiative transfer models. A doctor thinks he cures what you have and a specialist thinks you have what he cures. Dr. James Hansen specialized in radiative transfer models; but was never able to explain how greenhouse gasses could cause a planet to spin the wrong way. Many people think that Venus is hot because of its atmospheric pressure. In the troposphere radiative transfer is much less significant than heat conduction or convection. Conduction and convection is what your local weatherman looks at. This co2 based global warming thing is really based on a series of cascading positive feedbacks. Warmer air would contain more water vapor. The water vapor would multiply the co2 effect. Their collective effect would melt the tundra which would release methane, another greenhouse gas. These cascading effects would be triggered by the global temperatures rising above a “tipping point” beyond which the earth would be sent into an uncontrollable runaway greenhouse effect. It sounds logical; but it simply does not happen.

As I said, the earth has hot times and cold times; but always seems to bounce back to its “natural temperature range”. Currently we are at the cold end of that range. This is in fact an “ice age”. We just happen to be living during a short lived glacial retreat known as an “interglacial period”. Four of the previous interglacial periods were warmer and had more co2 than the current one. In fact for most of the past half billion years the earth has been warmer and had much more co2 in its atmosphere than now. Temperatures would have to go up 3-4 degrees Celsius and there would have to be three times as much co2 in the air just to get near normal. The earth is currently very deficient in co2. Even looking back just a thousand years it seems the climate was much warmer. A thousand years ago the North Atlantic was much warmer than it is now (medieval warm period MWP). Six hundred years ago the North Atlantic got very cold (the little ice age). In the 1800’s the North Atlantic began to warm up again. We don’t have rigorous temperature readings from these times; but, we have other proxies. Proxies are not all created equal. In school I found physics and math quite easy; but, geology was always a curve ball. Geology is all about evaluating proxies and the proxies don’t always point in the same direction. Tree rings can tell you if one year was better than another year; but, you can’t ferret out a tenth of a degree difference the way Dr. Michael Mann was trying to do. If you come across a frozen Viking farm; then you know that the climate had to be mild enough for whatever agriculture they were doing. Based on these proxies and the literature of the time; I can not see a thing remarkable about our temperature trend from 1800 to the present! Claims by the proponents of AGW that the Vikings were part of a vast right wing conspiracy have not been substantiated. There is nothing unusual about the current warming trend, even if you include a litany of exaggerated temperature readings.

“Also I cannot believe that there is not a concerted protest at the secrecy that surrounds this statistical composite from Phil Jones. You’d think that figures as widely quoted as this should be public (in the same way the satellite record is), but you’d be wrong.”
-Steve McIntyre:

It’s not just a matter of data being available in some generic form. There is tones and tones of data out there. Which data set goes with which paper? Is the data available? Even today they don’t make it easy. Remember; it’s your tax dollars that are paying for all this data. As these figures become available to the public more and more “errors” are being found. Failures in NOAA satellites went unchecked and the NOAA tries to doge FOI requests. Steve McIntyre discovered the Y2K bug in GISS data. A few months later they found more slipshod work from the house of Hansen. Data from Russian stations was cherry picked. This is particularly important because Siberia is one of the few places in the northern hemisphere where you can get rigorous data from pristine environments. An unexplained bias is added to New Zealand data and a smoking gun is found at Darwin Zero. Once the GISS data was fixed and the Darwin Zero data was un-homogenized the both indicated that the hottest year was in the 1930’s. This is significant because the proponents of AGW often claim that the medieval warm period was regional; not global. They also claim that the lack of data in the Southern Hemisphere proves this. Only for AGW does a lack of data prove anything. Furthermore it’s not up to Anthony Watts and Steve McIntyre to disprove the AGW theory. It’s up to the proponents of AGW to prove their theory and they have not come close to that. The vitriol aimed at Anthony Watts and Steve McIntyre is incomprehensible. Scrutinizing the integrity of the data is the first order of the day in any scientific endeavor. It is the difference between science and religion. Is the data driving the theory or is the theory driving the data?

Is it possible the sun has something to do with the climate? The AGW proponents say no. They claim that the suns brightness has not changed much in fifty years. Fifty years ago the northern hemisphere was well into its warming trend. The proponents of global warming have never produced the satellite records from four-hundred years ago, before the warming began. Furthermore the theory that it’s the sun has to do with sunspots. There is in fact a very good correlation with sunspots. When there are a lot of sun spots the suns atmosphere is very active. When the sun is active it injects more plasma into the solar wind which acts as a solar atmosphere stopping cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are thought to stimulate cloud formation which has a significant influence on the earth’s climate. That theory might not explain the global warming on Mars and Jupiter; but, something is happening that has nothing to do with people.

Proponents of AGW claim that carbon isotope analysis proves that humans have caused a 33% increase in atmospheric co2. Humans produce only 4% of the worlds co2. How can humans be responsible for a 33% increase in co2? It simply is not possible! That would be a total violation of both chemical and biological laws of equilibrium. In fact there is only a fractional difference δ13c and δ12c in the biosphere due to photosynthesis. Plants seem to have a slightly higher amount δ13co2. The co2 in the air seems to be lower in δ13co2 than you would expect from burning plants. Dr. Roy Spencer thinks peaks in sea surface temperatures might have caused the difference. In his post in WUWT Dr. Spencer compares:

The monthly C13/C12 ratio data from Mauna Loa (1990-2005) are available here:
The monthly Mauna Loa CO2 data (1958-2007) are contained in the 5th file listed here:

I find the claim that we know exactly how much co2 volcanoes produce to be questionable. Most of the worlds volcanoes are under water and very difficult to explore. Furthermore magma that encounters limestone would release huge amounts of co2. Marble comes from mixing limestone with magma. Simply examining a few volcanoes tells you nothing. The amount of co2 produced could vary greatly depending on what kind of rock the magma encountered. I know of no large scale census of volcanoes. In my last post I mentioned how a disproportionate number of most cited papers in the geosciences seem to deal with climate science, at least for American geologists. Where’s the “shake and bake”; that’s what gets people interested in geology in the first place.

“There is no question that there are very many more scientific papers which accept the mainstream view of global warming being caused by humans. And that might account for something if those papers actually independently investigated alternative, natural mechanisms that might explain most global warming in the last 30 to 50 years, and found that those natural mechanisms could not.”
-Dr. Roy Spencer

The idea that these AGW scientists just got together and in twenty years they got the Earths climate all figured out is the most ludicrous claim I’ve ever heard. If these people are really that good then they should develop fusion power and make the whole debate academic. In fact there is little historic data to go on and use of proxies is not well understood by theoretical physicists. I haven’t even gone into ocean currents, only three of which are generally discussed. Biology would be a whole new chapter in the discussion by itself. Co2 is one factor of many. In the future other factors influencing the climate will probably be discovered. Take another look at what this much maligned man said: Balling
One of the things I like about Anthony Watts blog, WUWT, is how enlightened the comments are. In one post, Searching the PaleoClimate, the third comment states:

“The analysis of Royer et al. (2004) assumes an unrealistically high pH correction. First, it neglects the ice-volume effect, which changes the relation between δ18O and T. Second, this large pH correction implies high temperatures for seawater even during times of extensive glaciations. Moreover, the analysis of Royer et al. (2004) consists of bootstrapping, by introducing a correction to T that is an implicit function of RCO2. It is then not surprising that a correlation between T and RCO2 is obtained. This would be the case irrespective of the RCO2 model utilized.”
Referring to:

Many of these peer reviewed articles, promoting the theory of “Anthropogenic Global Warming” have professional looking citations. There are thousands of articles by somebody et al. It is humanly impossible to begin to cover a fraction of them. Every time I’ve chased these musical “et al.s“; I find somebody et al. cited somebody else et al. who cited somebody who made an assumption about something they could not possibly know and had no physical reason as to why it should be so. (i.e. 100 year half life for co2 persistence in the atmosphere)

Personally I’m extremely skeptical of the theory of “Anthropogenic Global Warming” (AGW); but, that’s not really the point I’m trying to make here. The point is that things are allot more complicated than you’ve been told. The theory of AGW is not close to being proved and we are not close to understanding the earths climate.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Climate Change Politics

I have never challenged the idea that human emissions of co2 might have some effect on global temperatures. My problem was that the earth had been much warmer and had much more co2 for the past 500 million years. Why then, conveniently after the Arab Oil Embargo, suddenly a few parts per million co2 pose a threat to humanity? Even doubling the quantity of co2 would not get us near normal for this planet.

As I began to look deeper into this “Global Warming” controversy; I became astounded by a level of fraud no tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorist could dream up in a thousand years! For one thing; I don’t remember CNN mentioning anything about Climategate E-Mails. Surely if these people were interested in some answers then the best place to start would be the geological record.

“I observed that there was anguishingly little effort to apply the climate prediction models to past climate changes… some effort could have been put into comparing the model-predicted effects with those of high CO2 atmospheric concentrations from the geological record. This is an obvious check and no one was eager to do it. This is a clear warning sign…”

In fact it is for this reason that many geologists are very skeptical of Global Warming. I don’t think the global warming crowd like geologists very much. The claim of consensus is in fact greatly exaggerated. Geologists are not real climate scientists! Note that few of these “climatologists” actually have a baccalaureate in climatology. Most climatologists are displaced physicists and mathematicians. Geologists have been studying climate change for 200 years. Climate change is partly the basis for the geological time scale. It seems that anyone that challenges AGW must be a “shill” for the oil companies.

“The one thing the Flat Earth theorists, Creationists, and religious fundamentalists including Church of God, Assemblies of God, the Holy Inquisition, and Al Qaeda have in common is that they all try to discredit the idea by attacking the person, instead of attacking the data to discredit the idea. To further their own agenda, such cults deploy various fallacies because in place of truthful arguments about verifiable facts; polemics, fallacies, and outright fraud sound convincing (Archer, 1988a, 1988b, 1988c, 1988d; Brown, 1988; Falconer, 1988; Ritchie, 1988; Strahan, 1988; Price, 1990; Plimer, 1994). I have observed the same pattern of behavior amongst the global warming catastrophist camp (Royer et al., 2004; Oreskes, 2004; Armitage, 2005; Jones et al., 1990; Wang et al., 1990) with fallacies & abuses exposed by (Shaviv & Veizer, 2004; by McIntyre & McKitrick, 2003, 2005; Wegman et al., 2006; Carter, 2007; Keenan, 2007; Harper, 2007). Windshuttle & Elliot (1999) discuss the difference between a false argument or fallacy and a correct argument.”

The point is that these “Global Warmers” never challenge the science they simply try to denigrate anyone who challenges their theory. In fact they often denigrate those who challenge AGW as having not been published in peer review journals while at the same time trying to prevent publication of any challenge to their “science”.

Legitimate scientific skepticism is exercised through formal scientific circles, in particular the peer review process. Those such as [Stephen] McIntyre [the target of much of the criticism in the CRU Papers] who operate almost entirely outside of this system are not to be trusted.”-Mann

Note that Stephen McIntyre was eventually proved right and Mann is under investigation. The sad Penn State “white wash” did not cut it with anybody but the “true believers”.

“If you are saying on the one hand that you will not take notice of someone until they have been published while on the other you are working behind the scenes to stop any such publication, I would venture to suggest that you are not operating with any degree of bona fides either towards the media or the legitimate scientific process.”

The true believers don’t think the millions in grant money that scientists receive for touting global warming hysteria does not constitute an agenda. In fact governments spend 100 times as much money (as oil companies) trying to force scientists to support the global warming agenda. Even beyond the money is the kind of denigration and vitriol directed at scientists that don’t go along with this “consensus”, especially when the global warmers can not challenge the science. I have also noticed, when looking at, that it seems that a disproportionate number of most cited papers in the geosciences seem to deal with climate science, at least for American geologists. This should be extremely disturbing, as it seems the only way to move up in the academic world is to go around yelling “Climate Change”, no matter what your field is.

The mantra I hear most often is oil companies bad and government good. Oil companies are evil, profit driven greedy monsters. Oil companies make a profit by providing what people need including substitutes for whale and forest products. Governments don’t have an agenda. Governments would not lie or intimidate scientists. We are talking about those very same governments that have wantonly murdered tens of millions of people to gain dominion over the earth and all it resources, aren’t we?

(1917) Woodrow Wilson: archetype progressive
Woodrow Wilson was a leader of the Progressive Era. Woodrow Wilson takes the country to war. WWI:

But the right is more precious than peace, and we shall fight for the things which we have always carried nearest our hearts -- for democracy, for the right of those who submit to authority to have a voice in their own governments, for the rights and liberties of small nations, for a universal dominion of right by such a concert of free peoples as shall bring peace and safety to all nations and make the world itself at last free.”

Wilsons War Message to Congress
He is also considered a master at controlling information, a form of “mind control” ie Gun Control, Web Control, Mind Control.

According to Prof. Stone, however, “some of the most repressive legislation with respect to free speech” in the nation’s history was the work of Woodrow Wilson.

Wilson had his administration create the nation’s first public propaganda machine. The federal Committee for Public Information produced a flood of editorials, letters, and speeches intended to generate hatred of both Germany and critics of the war.

Woodrow Wilson set the tone of an utter intolerance for dissent and disagreement.”

This tactic is totally familiar to anyone whom has argued against AGW. Wilson said “for democracy, for the right of those who submit to authority to have a voice in their own governments”. A year earlier T. E. Lawrence said, referring to an Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire that the British were instigating:

(1916) T. E. Lawrence (Lawrence of Arabia) described the Arab Revolt as:

beneficial to us, because it marches with our immediate aims, the break up of the Islamic 'bloc' and the defeat and disruption of the Ottoman Empire, and because the states [Sharif Hussein] would set up to succeed the Turks would be … harmless to ourselves … The Arabs are even less stable than the Turks. If properly handled they would remain in a state of political mosaic, a tissue of small jealous principalities incapable of cohesion

The Middle East of today is not an accident; it is by design. Woodrow Wilson had already gotten the United States in the war even as he promised to keep the United States out of the war. That is why the German Submarines were attacking American Ships. In fact no tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist could have dreamed this up in a thousand years either.

(1918) The Hogarth Message:

The Entente Powers are determined that the Arab race shall be given full opportunity of once again forming a nation in the world. This can only be achieved by the Arabs themselves uniting, and Great Britain and her Allies will pursue a policy with this ultimate unity in view.”

With respect to Palestine:

Since the Jewish opinion of the world is in favor of a return of Jews to Palestine and in as much as this opinion must remain a constant factor, and further as His Majesty's Government view with favor the realization of this aspiration, His Majesty's Government are determined that insofar as is compatible with the freedom of the existing population both economic and political, no obstacle should be put in the way of the realization of this ideal.”

Thus Israel is created though they did not make it official untill 1948. By then it was too late to do much about it. There is no oil in Palestine so don’t blame the evil oil companies for this; but, there is oil in Iraq.

McMahon-Hussein Correspondence

(1919) Woodrow Wilson tries unsuccessfully to get the United States into League of Nations. The Republican congress prevented this from happening; nonetheless, the agenda went on. Even as our politicians pretend to be resisting the Kyoto Protocol the United States is one of the nations pushing the “Global Warming” agenda.
(1920) League of Nations, British Mandate of Mesopotamia (Iraq)
In Iraq the British were interested in oil, though power does not always have rhyme or reason.

(1922) League of Nations, British Mandate for Palestine (Israel)
In the case of Palestine the British always claimed the Mandates were coming from America.

And so “useful idiots” were used to form the very “jealous principalities” that T.E. Lawrence had talked about in 1916. By the time the Palestinians understood the depth of the betrayal it was already too late. In 1948 Palestine became Israel. What does this have to do with “Climate Change”?
(1973) Yom Kippur War:
The United States of America threatened to nuke the world if Israel does not win. Note also that it was now clear that the traditional methods of domination were failing. Our proxies were turning against us. The Middle East was still divided into petty jealous dictatorships as "Lawrence of Arabia" had planed; but, they weren't our petty dictatorships.

(1973-1974) Arab oil Embargo:
During this same time James Hansen became fixated on radiative transfer models while trying to understand the atmosphere of Venus. His work in the late 60’s and 70’s was considered ground breaking. It gave governments the tools they needed to control carbon and thus the world economy. Long before the creation of the IPCC, many governments were crying “Global Warming”.
(1975) The term “Global Warming” is used:
On 8 August 1975, Wally Broecker published his paper “Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?” in the journal Science. This is just a little too convenient!

(1981) James Hansen was appointed head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), at Columbia University in New York City. James Hansen is not an earth scientist. It’s good for a Physicist to break nature down to its simplest components and fixate on those components. That is what physicists are supposed to do. For an earth scientist; that kind of thinking is catastrophic. Later excursions to Venus would prove that Venus had a massive and recent collision that melted the planet and caused it to spin the wrong way superheating the atmosphere. James Hansens models were based on a false premise yet in 1988 they were used to create the IPCC. His models are still being used today. This isn’t science.
(1988) The IPCC is created:
This is a megalomaniacs dream come true. The IPCC opens up the possibility of controlling everything in a way no military could ever dream of.
The bottom line is this: If you want to harness the sun and fight “Global Warming” either to grow food, use solar cells or grow that salt water algae, the place to start is North Africa. North Africa is the sunniest and hottest place on earth. Land and labor are inexpensive. We don’t do that because “Global Warming” was never about saving the earth anymore than WW1 was about spreading democracy. Both were about power.
"Controlling carbon is kind of a bureaucrat's dream. If you control carbon, you control life.”
- MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen, UN IPCC lead author and reviewer

The ‘global warming scare’ is being used as a political tool to increase government control over American lives, incomes and decision making. It has no place in the Society's activities.”
- Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt who flew on the Apollo 17 mission and formerly of the Norwegian Geological Survey and for the U.S. Geological Survey.

"First off, there isn't a consensus among scientists. Don't let anybody tell you there is.”
- Dr. Charles Wax, past president of the American Association of State Climatologists

CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another….Every scientist knows this, but it doesn’t pay to say so…Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot.”
- Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology research at Chubu University in Japan.

Senate Minority Report

Referencing an audit of internal consistency of the IPCC third report…surprise it did not pass also a good quote from Dr. Richard Lindzen, a PhD in atmospheric physics from Harvard, a professor of meteorology at MIT:

"Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their grant funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves listed as industry stooges, scientific hacks, or worse."

This article goes on to reference sourcewatch, a website that exists for the explicit purpose of denigrating any scientist that challenges AGW. While “sourcewatch” portrays any scientist challenging AGW as either incompetent or a stooge of the oil companies, it fails to show how much money scientists are getting to support global warming claims.

Some of you might have heard that scientists involved in the “Climategate” scandal were cleared of wrong doing. That’s not exactly what happened. Though there is little doubt that the actions of these scientists constituted a clear violation of the “freedom of information act” (remember these guys work for us) “no prosecutions can be brought for offences committed more than six months prior”. Unbelievable!

PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data. Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !”
-Professor Phil Jones, in charge of climate research at the CRU